matinae’s blog

Translating Primary Enthusiasm into General Election Results

Primary election enthusiasm doesnât guarantee general election wins. A general election win requires hard work, organization, and an effective primary follow-up plan to keep excitement stokedâ”-and even then there are no sure things. This piece by Donald Lambro in yesterdayâs Washington Times sums it up well:

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The Democrats are claiming that record voter turnout in their party primaries will translate into winning the White House in November, but election studies show there is no correlation between the two in modern presidential history.

Lambro highlights some academic research that reveals no connection between primary turnout numbers and general election results. Back in March at Real Clear Politics, Jay Cost produced similar analysis demonstrating no correlation between primary turnout and electoral performance in November.

It all comes down to execution–and the political pros know it. Thatâs why the Democrats and their outside interest group allies are putting so much emphasis on Obamaâs 50-state registration drive. They know the key to victory in November lies with better-than-usual turnout among younger voters and African Americans. Without a heavy dose of increased participation among these groups, Obama has no chance of winning.

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If you want to read an interesting scenario of what increased youth and African-American turnout might mean for Obama in November, read this by blogger Poblano at Fivethirtyeight.com. Using 2004 turnout as a baseline and current polling data to distribute the hypothetical vote, he estimates, for example, that every 10 percent boost in African-American turnout will increase Obamaâs popular vote by another 1 percent. One could quibble with the methodology. For example, his estimates donât account for a counter-mobilization by the McCain forces. But itâs one of the few attempts Iâve seen that puts real numbers behind the prospects of translating the primary turnout surge into general election results.

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Poblano concludes with this observation:

The ability to bring new voters to the polls remains Barack Obama’s most significant electoral advantage, both relative to Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Indeed, current polling may already be underestimating Obama’s strength against McCain if it does not account for improved turnout among Democratic-leaning groups like young voters and African-Americans, who have participated in record numbers in this year’s primaries. If Obama can parlay that advantage with a strong ground game, he very much could redraw the electoral map.

Democratic operatives claim to be pushing the ground game harder than ever. The hype in liberal circles about the April 25 Obama campaign conference call on voter registration is just the latest example.

I wonder if the McCain campaign and the RNC have identified similar target groups for voter mobilization efforts?

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